Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
