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A trader made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was made public, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from non-public details of the event.

Changing Odds in Forecasts

Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the leader would be removed from office by the close of the month increased in the period preceding Donald Trump stated on Saturday that the president had been apprehended.

A particular user, which joined the platform last month and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $436K from a starting bet of $32.5K.

Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a cryptographic address for identification.

Market Signals Before Public Statement

Trading information shows that traders estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd.

However the odds had climbed to 11% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the morning of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in betting activity just before the official statement was made.

"That trade has all the hallmarks of a bet based on inside information," commented an industry expert.

Several of other platform users also earned large payouts from similar wagers.

Regulatory Scrutiny Grows

Elected officials are starting to take note.

A new rule presented on recently seeks to ban federal workers from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a market.

Market Background

Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in recent years, with traders able to wager on everything from sports to politics.

This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate.

Insider trading is illegal in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting arena.

An official representative for Kalshi said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."