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It was 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of the side's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

This is a rather hard proposition to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the victories have stacked up.

Per Opta, twice all season have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side that have strung together ten consecutive victories, they look strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.

His opener stemmed from a superb shot, bent just inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• The winger may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.